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In Facts and Fallacies of Software Engineering at the end of fact 2, Robert Glass says:

The problem is—and of course there is a problem, since we are not acting on this fact in our field—we don't know how to identify those "best" people. We have struggled over the years with programmer aptitude tests and certified data processor exams and the ACM self-assessment programs, and the bottom line, after a lot of blood and sweat and perhaps even tears were spent on them, was that the correlation between test scores and on-the-job performance is nil. (You think that was disappointing? We also learned, about that time, that computer science class grades and on-the-job performance correlated abysmally also [Sackman 1968].)

Is this fact supported by more recent papers?

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closed as off topic by Robert Harvey, Walter, Tim Post, World Engineer, Glenn Nelson Jan 11 '13 at 4:05

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Is that really so hard to believe? –  System Down Jan 10 '13 at 22:52
First you would need a true metric of "job performance"... when in of itself has no good metric. –  bunglestink Jan 10 '13 at 23:11
Why those close votes? This is a request for study citation, totally answerable.. –  Jimmy Hoffa Jan 10 '13 at 23:22
I removed the first two unanswerable questions, perhaps it can be left open now.. –  Jimmy Hoffa Jan 10 '13 at 23:27
Couldn't this be applied to a number of professions? –  Deco Jan 10 '13 at 23:45

1 Answer 1

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I came across a fascinating dissertation titled Hiring and inequality in elite professional service firms by Lauren Rivera. Your university library should be able to obtain a copy. I have not found a copy online.

The companies that she studied used GPA as a proxy measure for the meticulousness of candidates - a candidate with a low GPA is likely to be careless. I think it is one of the few sociological/anthropological studies that actually measures what recruiters (in that tier of company) are actually looking for - as compared to what they say they are looking for. The bibliography of the dissertation is also fascinating.

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