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How do I account for changed or forgotten tasks in an estimate?
@Andrew, if I'm understanding you correctly, the "missed tasks" are accounted for by the less than 100% probability of being done at a given time. If you've done lots of projects like the current one, your curve will quickly slope from 0% to (say) 90%. That's because you have a high confidence of there being few missed tasks. If you have a low confidence, then the slope will be much more gradual. That goes for any reason, not just forgotten tasks, but other risk factors as well.